Manufacture of textiles and garments for export to Europe. Photo: Do Phuong Anh/VNA
To learn more about obstacles as well as solutions to overcome difficulties for the economic recovery process, the VNA reporter had an interview with Dr. Tran Toan Thang, Head of Industry and Enterprise Economic Forecasting Department, Center National Socio-Economic Information and Forecast, Ministry of Planning and Investment.
In the first months of this year, Vietnam's economy has had some positive results. In your opinion, what will be the "push" for Vietnam's economic growth in the last months of the year?
With the determination to recover and develop the economy so as not to "miss the beat" with the recovery momentum of the world economy, the National Assembly and the Government have issued the Economic Recovery Program 2022-2023. A number of policies were implemented right in the first quarter of 2022. In particular, up to now, Vietnam is still relatively well controlling the issue of inflation despite signs and pressure of increasing production costs due to global inflation and the prices of world raw materials and fuels. world increased sharply. Controlling the epidemic situation, gradually opening up the economy, keeping the macro-economy stable, and controlling inflation well... have helped the economy achieve some positive results in the first months of the year.
During the remainder of 2022, many factors will positively support economic recovery and growth. In my opinion, first of all, it is the policy of opening up the economy, especially the full opening from March 15, 2021, which is the basic condition for the recovery process. High vaccination rates have allowed the government to lift strict, disruptive pandemic containment measures.
Secondly, the recovery of the labor market is an important condition for the recovery of production, especially in the largest economic and industrial centers of the country - where capital has been severely damaged and there is a labor shortage. severe impact after the 4th epidemic wave in 2021. Labor market recovery and other stimulus measures will boost industrial growth at 9.5% in 2022 according to forecast, contributing 3. 6 percentage points to GDP growth.
Third, resonate with the impact of the Economic Recovery Program. The stimulus packages to support growth recovery will act as a "bump" to economic growth in the coming time.
Fourth, the foreign trade sector (exports and foreign direct investment) is still expected to continue to be the driving force for economic growth in 2022. Vietnam will continue to benefit from the export sector thanks to The implementation of important trade agreements, foreign direct investment flows still maintain high growth and tourism flows are gradually resumed from 2022.
And finally, the recovery trend of domestic demand.
In your opinion, what are the main risks and obstacles to the economic growth recovery process?
In my opinion, the recovery process of Vietnam's economy will continue to face some key risks and obstacles:
Firstly, the risks from the pandemic, the risk of the emergence of new strains, although recent developments indicate an improvement in global disease control. In particular, the "Zero COVID" campaign could put a strain on the Chinese economy, which in turn could slow down Vietnam's export growth and economic recovery.
Second, inflationary pressure and production costs are increasing strongly.
Third, risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although the direct impacts are not too large due to the relatively small bilateral trade and investment relations between these two countries with Vietnam, the indirect effects are relatively large.
Fourth, the slowdown of the global economy and important partner economies of Vietnam, especially China, in the context that the country continues its "zero COVID" policy with control measures. strict control.
Fifth, the phase difference in Vietnam's economic stimulus policy compared with the global trend can effectively reduce the impact of the economic stimulus policies that Vietnam is expecting.
Sixth, risks related to inefficiencies in the implementation of economic stimulus policies. Inconsistencies in the application of economic policies or practices can discourage businesses and lose investor confidence.
Finally, at present, there are still certain confusions in the implementation of stimulus packages for economic recovery.
What policy recommendations do you recommend for the economy to grow as expected in the second half of 2022?
I think that Vietnam needs to pay special attention to the risk of imported inflation from outside. The current low inflation in the country is partly due to low consumer demand. Cost-push inflation should soon be officially assessed by the Government and especially the possibility of inflation in the next quarters in 2022, due to the influence of producer price index, import price index on inflation to prevent inflation. take control measures to help limit negative impacts on domestic consumers. In particular, it is necessary to study the scenario of continuing to reduce excise tax to deal with the case of gasoline prices when the world price fluctuates greatly, as well as delaying/postponing the increase of taxes/fees to stabilize the prices of commodities. other consumption.
We also need to focus on building supportive institutions and policies to promote investment and investment linkages between economic sectors, between domestic enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises (FDI). . Unlike 2020, FDI inflows into Vietnam have decreased and the project size is also smaller, showing an important implication that in the current COVID-19 context, it is difficult for Vietnam to take advantage of the trend. chain shifting direction. The problem is not the external opportunity, but the internal force. Improving internal capacity, especially premises and skilled workers, needs special attention in the coming time.
In addition, it is necessary to be more drastic and faster than the economic stimulus packages approved in the Government's Resolution No. 11/NQ-CP. Besides the infrastructure investment package, the interest rate support loan packages are also needed. Rates, support to build social housing for employees, tax/fee exemption and reduction measures for specific target groups, should be further promoted.
In addition, it is necessary to continue to have breakthrough institutional reforms to further improve the business environment and equal competitiveness, moving towards a full market economy. Especially interested in creating favorable conditions for the development of new, innovative business models, based on the application of digital platforms and digital spaces.
Thank you Sir!
Quốc Huy/TTXVN (Thực hiện)
https://baomoi.com/luc-day-nao-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-nhung-thang-cuoi-nam/c/42627863.epi
baomoi
