Mới đây, CTCP Tập đoàn Dệt may Việt Nam (Vinatex) dự báo lợi nhuận quý 3/2022 của ngành may sẽ giảm 25-30% so với quý 2/2022. Bên cạnh đó là nguy cơ giãn, hoãn hoặc hủy đơn hàng dù đã ký kết có khả năng xảy ra rất cao do diễn biến kinh tế không thuận lợi ở các thị trường chính.
Chi phí cao "ăn mòn" lợi nhuận
Theo Vinatex, chỉ số giá nguyên liệu nhập khẩu tăng 11,2% nhưng giá trị sản xuất công nghiệp chỉ tăng 4,5%, biên lợi nhuận của doanh nghiệp (DN) sản xuất bị bào mòn đáng kể.
Nhiều DN sản xuất có mức tồn kho cao trong khi sức mua thấp, nhu cầu tín dụng tăng cao do tồn kho, kéo dài thời gian thanh toán và khách hàng, dòng tiền bị hạn chế. Lãi suất cho vay của các ngân hàng có xu thế tăng mạnh, áp lực lên chi phí vay, nhất là đối với các DN đang cần dùng nhiều vốn.
Profits of domestic enterprises in the textile and garment industry were significantly eroded when the price index of imported raw materials remained at a high level.
The newly published financial statements of the second quarter of 2022 of textile and garment enterprises show the opposite in terms of profits: some enterprises continue to make large profits, but some enterprises due to high costs lead to "corrosion" in profits. ". And what makes analysts afraid is that it is difficult for textile and garment enterprises to maintain good profits in the last 5 months of 2022.
Especially when the industry is still struggling with the high price of input materials. For example, the yarn industry has low demand and low prices, while the price of cotton - the main raw material for production is still at between 3.2-3.4 USD/kg. While the current yarn price corresponds to the cotton price of only 2.5 USD.
Or like the price of polyester and cotton yarns in China from the beginning of 2022 to now have increased by 10% -18% over the same period last year, leading to an increase in fabric costs and a significant impact on the gross profit margin of the company. domestic manufacturing companies in Vietnam - especially those with the majority of FOB orders (in the form of garment processing, garment factories are self-sufficient in input materials).
According to domestic garment manufacturing companies, customers have shortened the time to pre-order orders (except for the holiday period in the fourth quarter of 2022) due to low inventory levels in the export market. high and inflationary pressures.
Previously, customers used to order 6 months in advance, now they only order 3 months in advance. Therefore, it is estimated that revenue growth of textile and garment manufacturing companies in Vietnam will decelerate in the last months of 2022 and 2023.
Companies also expect yarn, fabric, logistics and labor costs to remain high and competition in the labor market (mainly with FDI factories) will negatively impact the entire supply chain. textiles, from manufacturer to retailer. Therefore, gross profit margin of domestic textile companies is forecasted to continue to shrink.
What do businesses need to overcome difficulties?
At the recent meeting of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (Vitas) with textile enterprises in Tan Binh district and Ho Chi Minh City. Thu Duc (HCMC), businesses also complained about the high price of raw materials, which greatly affected profits.
In addition, businesses share the current situation of serious labor shortages, lack of raw materials originating from Vietnam, pressure on logistics costs being too high, pressure to increase wages and ensure income for employees. worker. In addition, businesses also face difficulties in digital transformation, using renewable energy, etc.
In particular, the shortage of textile workers has been reflected a lot in recent years. After the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to many workers returning to their hometowns not returning or working in factories in their hometowns because garment enterprises moved, it also made it more difficult for garment enterprises in Ho Chi Minh City. . Due to this situation, recently, some businesses have not dared to accept new orders.
The lack of labor is also a common concern of garment enterprises in the South, while this area currently accounts for about 40% of the total export turnover of the industry.
Through the above meeting, Vitas representative recommended to enterprises: the inevitable path is to digital transformation, apply automation, use renewable energy, accept the trend of reducing labor ..., as well as select items, differentiated, high-quality products, promote brand building.
In terms of industry, Vitas believes that it is necessary to have a strategy to develop domestic production of raw materials and accessories, and to strengthen human resource training to meet the requirements in the new period. Governments and localities also need to create conditions for the construction of large-scale concentrated textile industrial parks…
Statistics show that in the first 7 months of this year, the country's textile and garment exports reached US$22.1 billion, up 19.8% over the same period last year. However, with the goal of reaching an export turnover of 43 billion USD this year, it is said that there are still many challenges ahead.
Especially when the world economy is forecast to be gloomy in the last months of 2022 and may continue in the first half of 2023. Inflation in developed countries continues to increase, the average level is 6.6%, developing countries 9.5%, leading consumers to reduce spending on textiles.
Not only that, fluctuations in exchange rates like recent times are also a "test" for domestic enterprises in the textile and garment industry. As noted by economist Phan Minh Hoa (RMIT University), there is a point to note that for some products, for export, enterprises need to import a lot of raw materials. Therefore, if the USD appreciates, making export revenue in USD beneficial, the cost of imports, transportation, logistics, warehousing, and debt in USD will also increase.
Therefore, the assessment of "gains and losses" from exchange rate fluctuations will depend on the specific situation of each enterprise in the textile and garment industry. While still dependent on importing raw materials with expensive prices, in order to overcome difficulties, it is necessary for domestic enterprises in this industry to maximize domestic resources, find alternative partners, especially differentiated from domestic, gradually reducing dependence on imports will help reduce costs.
The Vinh
https://vnbusiness.vn/viet-nam/the-kho-go-cua-doanh-nghiep-det-may-noi-dia-1087115.html
vnbusiness
