Africa economic outlook

Textile factory in Ghana. Photo UN

Africa hopes to see "light at the end of the tunnel" as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts growth of 3.8% in 2022, thanks to abundant agricultural production in a number of countries. In addition, economic growth in southern sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an area that has been heavily impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, in 2022 will be shaped by strong efforts to promote trade. trade and investment.

The IMF's "Pandemic Recovery" report shows that, in 2022, Africa's 25 fastest-growing economies will record growth of more than 5%. The 10 best performing African economies are the Seychelles, projected to grow 7.7%, Rwanda (7.0%), Mauritius (6.7%), Niger (6.6%), Benin, Cape Verde , South Sudan and Côte d'Ivoire will each increase by 6.5%, while Guinea and Ghana will increase by 6.3% and 6.2%, respectively. Kenya and The Gambia will see 6% growth in 2022. Forecasts for 2023 show that these countries will also experience near-steady growth, with the exception of Rwanda and Niger, which will grow, respectively. reaching 8% and 10% by 2023. Senegal, whose growth in 2022 is expected to reach 5.5%, will be the second country in Africa to achieve double-digit growth in 2023, reaching 10.8%. Apart from Ethiopia (no forecast yet), Equatorial Guinea is the only African country that will record negative growth of 5.6% in 2022 and negative 1.5% in 2023.

The travel and tourism industry in some African countries is forecast to recover in 2022, but the recovery momentum is limited depending on the tourism source market. To support this sector, the East African Community (EAC) has launched a Regional and Domestic Tourism Communication Campaign to market domestic and regional tourism products and services. Called "Tembea Nyumbani" (Swahili commonly used in East Africa, meaning "Go home"), the campaign aims to encourage East Africans to travel within the country and across the region in support of the revival. "smokeless industry" after the pandemic. To increase trade, EAC is constructing and operating additional Single Window Border Points (OSBPs) in the region, building standard gauge rail lines and adding Tanzania and Burundi to the Single Window Network Area of ​​the country. EAC.

African commodity manufacturers and traders can also look forward to a strong new year due to the commodity boom. The technologies are expected to be widely adopted in Africa by 2022 as the region continues its digital transformation. Investment in infrastructure, as well as education and training, is a necessary precondition for fully benefiting from the digital revolution.

To facilitate financial transactions, intercontinental banking, September 2021, the African Export-Import Bank and the African Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat announced the "System Payments and Inter-African Agreement" (PAPSS) has come into operation. PAPSS enables instant cross-border payments in local currencies between African markets in a move aimed at achieving Innovative Financial Market Infrastructure. This system is expected to significantly impact intra-African trade by making cross-border transactions easier through the elimination of hard currency. PAPSS opens up a market of 1.2 billion people with an estimated combined GDP of $3 trillion. This is a huge potential and if successfully implemented, Africa can become a huge economy and not just based on the extractive industry.

Opportunities and prospects have opened up for the African economy, but the continent is still heavily impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. In the context that the Omicron variant is expanding its spread and more than 80% of the 1.2 billion people in Africa have not received the first Covid-19 vaccine, the "black continent" continues to be under pressure. from the risk of outbreak of new epidemic waves. "Vaccine coverage" will be challenging for Africa and tied to the continent's economic recovery.

Dan Anh